On November 3, Michigan voters will decide whether to send Abdul El-Sayed to the U.S. Senate. If he wins, the 41-year-old physician from Ann Arbor would be the first Muslim and the first Egyptian-American ever to serve in the chamber. His opponent is Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost Michigan's other Senate race in 2024.
Why this race matters
- It's an open seat in a swing state. Democrat Gary Peters is retiring, making this the only open Democratic-held Senate seat in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024. Michigan backed Biden by 2.8 points in 2020 and Trump by 1.4 points in 2024. Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate race since 1994. (Wikipedia)
- It drew record outside spending. Outside groups spent heavily in the primary to back Rep. Haley Stevens. Estimates range from about $30 million (Wikipedia) to more than $50 million (Al Jazeera). Total ad spending reached $98.2 million, the third most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. (Bridge Michigan)
- It's personal for Arab and Muslim Michiganders. In Dearborn and beyond, activists told Al Jazeera the race is a chance to show their community's political power after years of war in Gaza and Lebanon.
How we got here
El-Sayed, a former Rhodes Scholar who ran the Detroit and Wayne County health departments, launched his campaign in April 2025 on a platform of Medicare for All, getting corporate money out of politics, and lowering everyday costs. He also opposes U.S. military aid to Israel. His campaign takes no corporate PAC money. Even so, it raised about $14.5 million through mid-July, almost all of it from individual donors. (FEC)
The primary was a contest between the party's progressive and more moderate wings. Stevens had the backing of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Sen. Gary Peters. El-Sayed had Bernie Sanders, and days before the vote, all seven members of "the Squad" endorsed him. (Fox News) State Sen. Mallory McMorrow dropped out in July.
Final polls showed El-Sayed up by double digits. (Newsweek) The result on August 4 was much closer: about 48.5% to 47.5%, with nearly 1.5 million votes cast. (Michigan Advance) The AP called it the next morning. Stevens conceded and endorsed him, and so did McMorrow.
El-Sayed has also drawn some criticism, including over campaign appearances with a controversial online streamer and his initial response to the West Bloomfield synagogue attack, which he later said should have been a simple condemnation. (Wikipedia)
What the forecasts say
In the general election, El-Sayed leads by a small margin:
- Fox News (Sept. 24–28): El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 49% among likely voters. That's a reversal from August, when Rogers led by 4 among registered voters.
- Marist (Sept. 24–27): El-Sayed 51%, Rogers 44% among registered voters.
- Emerson (Sept. 12–14): El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 46%, with 4% undecided.
Bettors on Polymarket give El-Sayed about a 73% chance of winning. Major forecasters, including Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, rated the race a toss-up earlier this year.
Issues may decide it. In the Fox poll, El-Sayed led by 13 points among voters most focused on the cost of living, the issue 70% of voters called extremely important. Rogers led by 26 points among voters focused on immigration. Republicans argue El-Sayed is too far left, while Democrats are linking Rogers to President Trump, whose approval in Michigan is around 40%. (Marist, Emerson)
Bottom line: El-Sayed is a slight favorite, but the race is close enough that turnout, especially in Detroit, Dearborn, and college towns, will likely decide it.
Top photo: Abdul El-Sayed at a campaign meet-and-greet at Michigan Technological University, October 2025. Photo by Conlan Houston, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.